Dipshits For Franken

Well, the long and arduous task of hand-counting nearly 3 million ballots is complete, and it appears that Franken has emerged victorious:

The state Canvassing Board certified final results this afternoon in Minnesota’s marathon U.S. Senate race, but that won’t end the battle between Democrat Al Franken and Republican Norm Coleman, whose Senate term ended on Saturday.

Moments after the board certified that Franken had eked out 225 more votes than Coleman, attorneys for Coleman said they would file a lawsuit within 24 hours.

Of course Coleman will sue, so the drama isn’t quite over yet.  But considering the 400+ vote swing, I’m inclined to take us back to a post I made back in November, before the recount began, where I posed this question:

If Franken does wind up winning, and it’s the dummies that put him over the top, what does that say?

Now, I say dummies, assuming that the majority of the people who weren’t counted by the machines the first time around were my fellow Minnesotans who did something like this on election day:

(I made this up; NOT an actual ballot)

Needless to say, part of me wishes that the recount swung the other way, even if I voted for Franken myself. After all, there’s something to be said about an association with people who aren’t bright enough to fill in a little circle on a ballot.  And while there are those who may theorize that “funny business” was at play in the outcome, there were those who predicted from the very beginning that the undervotes would fall in Al’s favor, based on demographics and exit polls (which is a nice way of saying that the elderly and uneducated are more likely to vote for Franken, and are also more likely to screw up their ballots).   Is my reasoning sound?  I’m not certain, and maybe I’m too lazy to dive in and research it down to the last vote cast.  But on the surface, it looks like Franken might owe his victory to a smattering of dipshits, if this was indeed the statistical handful of voters that put him over the top.  

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I Voted For Franken

Just in case anyone was wondering.

click for sample ballot (pdf)

As a resident here in MN, I had the *ahem* privilege to see the nastiest campaign in history play out over the last few months.  The sheer volume of ads was, quite frankly, dizzying.  And I must say, toward the end there it had gotten to the point where it was almost comical (in a dark comedy sort of way), as they had given up addressing policy altogether, instead lowering the “discourse” to a tit-for-tat rebuttal of each other’s ads. 

Anyway, I just figured that it worth noting, since it appears that my ballot will soon be in someone’s hands for the big recount of 2.8 million plus.  Here’s the latest tally:

The latest figures reported to the secretary of state give incumbent Coleman a lead over Franken of only 204 votes Monday morning.

That’s down 17 votes from the margin reported last week in tallies that are still considered unofficial. The difference of only about one-hundredth of 1 percent between the two candidates will trigger an automatic recount next week.

And the odds that Franken can come away victorious?  Well, Mr. Silver at 538.com has a great analysis, and Franken’s chances are both good and bad, depending how you look at it.   Let’s just say that the next few weeks will be pretty interesting here in the Land of 10K Lakes, ’cause as ugly as the campaign itself was, the recount process could prove to be even uglier.  In the very least, I’m curious to see just how many people were careless enough to screw up their ballots.  I mean, look at it.  It ain’t that tough.

Exit question:  If Franken does wind up winning, and it’s the dummies that put him over the top, what does that say?

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Update: Just for giggles, I’ll explore some possible examples of an under/over vote:

Why The McCain Camp Didn’t Want To “Free Sarah”

Hopefully, this will be the very last Chamber post about Sarah Palin….

The election is over, and Obama won, so I acknowledge that the subject matter around here should probably be covering things that involve looking ahead.  But I couldn’t help but be struck by some of the stories that are surfacing today about McCain’s choice of VP.  In short, the narrative goes that Sarah Palin is even more clueless than parodied by Tina Fey.

Before I link to that stuff, however, I’d like to revisit something I read right after Palin’s disastrous interview with Katie Couric:  Kathryn Jean Lopez: Free Sarah Palin! A plea for authenticity in the veepstakes

My guess — based on nothing but hope for a change — is that Sarah Palin just needs some freedom. I don’t know who is holding her back but if John McCain wants to win this thing it had better not be him and his staff. When I watch these interviews, I see a woman who looks like she’s stayed up all night studying and is trying to remember the jurisprudential chronology of privacy vis-a-vis reproduction, the war on terror, and public figures (add 12 more things, described in the most complicated way possible, to the list to be more accurate). She looks like a woman who’s been cramming talking points and great Matt Scully lines and Mark Salter-McCain war stories and Steve Schmidt marching orders into her head since that first plane ride from Alaska. She looks like a woman who has ceased being the confident, successful executive who got herself elected governor of Alaska without the full force of her party behind her and managed to have an approval rating of which most can’t even dream.

Starting with the Gibson interview, it sure did seem like Palin was simply regurgitating talking points that someone had crammed into her head.  Much of the rhetoric didn’t have anything to do with the question that was being asked.  Like Lopez, I thought that she was being “handled” because the McCain camp wanted to be certain that she stuck to the officially approved talking points.  There were some cringe-worthy parts, sure (like the “Bush Doctrine” thing), but I didn’t really think that she was exceedingly ignorant.

As the weeks passed, however, there were certain statements that Palin made that made me think that she just might be breathtakingly clueless.  One of the most notable was something that I didn’t take the time to mention here in the Chamber (opting instead to roam to other blogs that had brought it up), which was the fact that Palin didn’t seem to understand the meaning of “negative campaigning” and, even more concerning, the First Amendment:

 “If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations,” Palin told host Chris Plante, “then I don’t know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media.”

That’s enough to give someone the ol’ dolor de cabeza. 

And now, with McCain’s succession, the campaign insiders apparently can’t contain their frustration with Palin any longer.  Just get a load of this:

Could it be that Palin was given a list of talking points to cover any and all interview questions simply because the alternative was worse?   Sounds pretty likely, all things considered.  It isn’t hard to imagine the staffers running through trial interviews with her behind the scenes, having a huddle, and coming back to her with a little “Um… yea.  On second thought, just read this.”  If she refused the help, it would make sense that the Couric interview was a hodgepodge of the talking points, cluelessness, and of course, plenty of “also”.

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Update: For those who like to roam to other blogs discussing the subject, here’s the memeorandum link.

Update:  As the world turns…The leaks from the anonymous McCain staffers have been flowing for the last few days now, and naturally, pro-McCain blogs like Hot Air are wondering aloud why the heck The Maverick isn’t jumping in to defend his VP pick.

Update (11/12):  Amazing.  Palin still hasn’t looked up the definition of “negative campaigning”:

BLITZER: So looking back, you don’t regret that tough language during the campaign?

PALIN: No, and I do not think that it is off-base nor mean-spirited, nor negative campaigning to call someone out on their associations and on their record. And that’s why I did it.

Chamber Election Day Thread

Well, it felt like this day would never come, but here it is.  Get out there and vote everyone!

I’ll be stuck at work the whole day, so I’ll have to get my election result updates via CNN’s twitter feed (hopefully they’ll txt me state-by-state results as they come in).

I guess I’ll hesitantly take the opportunity to offer up a prediction, and say that Obama will win by a healthy margin. L-Word, even.  I’m predictably basing this on the analysis of the latest polls and election maps, but especially on the hints that the so-called “cell phone only” numbers reveal.  But I’m keeping the beer on ice ’till the fat lady sings.

So here it is, the obligatory thread for the big day. 

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The Rightosphere’s Grand Finale

As a Brave Nomadic Warrior of the Political Web™, I’ve noticed some insanely desperate attempts to change the course of the race over the last year or so.  From the idea that it was Ayers who secretly wrote Obama’s book, to the elusive Michelle Obama “whitey” tape, to allegations that Barack forged his birth certificate, the width and breadth of the assertions seemed to be limited only to the boundaries of the human imagination (an absolutely hilarious rundown of these “greatest moments” was penned in a classic post by Jon Swift here). 

But now as we enter the final moments of this long campaign, the rightosphere is faced with the reality that McCain’s chances are slim.  So, I’m going to take the opportunity to use the end of a 4th of July fireworks production as a metaphor, and document the components of the flurry as I stumble upon them.  And believe me, there are some definite oohs and ahhs here (just in the last 24 hrs or so):

-Barack Obama Malcolm X’s secret love child?

Kidding!

….not:

Tom Mboya, and Philip Ochieng, all share common physical features of the Kenyan Luo tribe: Modest stature under six feet, round faces, small chins, wide set eyes, slanted back foreheads, and retracted hairlines…none of these features are shared by Malcolm X and Barack Hussein Obama Jr.

(That one earned Pamela a Countdown “worst person” award)

–The Weather Underground and Obama’s campaign both feature a logo that is circular!

Do you see the connection?  I don’t.  Then again, I assumed that the Obama logo was designed by some outside group anyway.  As it turns out, I was right.  In any case, go ahead and click the link, as the other suggestions of Obama/WU correlation in the post are just as flimsy.

Update:  Good grief:

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

OK, so they knew it was a dishonest smear.  I’m not sure if that makes them better or worse.

–The Obamas have no pets!

That one may actually be fact, but the stab at spinning it into a game-changer earns a spot here.

–DID VERA BAKER ABORT OBAMA’S BABY? IS OBAMA BEING BLACKMAILED BY HER? BY OTHERS? DID OBAMA RIDE HER DIRTY?

??????

-An Examination of Obama’s Use of Hidden Hypnosis Techniques in His Speeches

This one comes to us in the form of a 67-page pdf!

I’ll continue to highlight more eruptions as we march towards the finish line, since we still may have yet to witness the most spectacular example.  You can almost hear the groaning sound as these people grasp at straws, desperately hurling anything and everything they can think of, as soon as they think of it.   In a way, this is a more extreme shadow of what the McCain campaign has done, so I have to wonder that it never occurred to any of these people that all this crap might have done more harm than good. 

Oh well, let’s enjoy the fireworks!

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Update: I should probably rethink the title for this thread, as I totally forgot about the PUMA’s: *Breaking* Ayers Advises Obama on a Regular Basis (source)

Ah yes. *Breaking*, the day before the election.

Update:  Speaking of which, Drudge finds his inner PUMA:

The screenshot of the middle finger scratch, again!  LOL

Enough Of “Joe The Plumber” Already!

Ok, I realize that the media was going to glom onto this guy when he came up a bazillion times in the debate, but enough is enough.  It has gotten to the point where “Joe” is not only on the campaign trail with McCain/Palin, but the media is reporting his statements as if he’s a candidate himself.  Just check this out:

‘Joe the Plumber’ Backs Claim That Obama Would Bring ‘Death to Israel’

That’s an actual headline.  On Fox. 

So, naturally, Shep Smith had to call him up and give the “could you explain that?” interview.

Or how about this:

Joe the Plumber says Obama would make US socialist

That’s an AP headline.

Or this:

Records searches anger Joe the Plumber

The Columbus Dispatch.

Is it just me, or does this “Joe the Plumber” blitz give you the feeling that we’re living in a children’s book?  Are we all six year-olds?  

Apparently, McCain thinks so, as he’s adopted and embraced the Toys ‘R’ Us-esque marketing gimmick and plastered him all over his campaign website as well:

Go here, and you’ll see videos of Brad the Welder, Jeff the Truck Driver, Tara the Teacher, Josie the Transcriptionist, Jeff the Realtor, etc.

{{{sigh}}}

I realize that most of the country doesn’t give a rat’s hinder what my opinion is.  OK, scratch that.  Most of the country doesn’t know who the heck I am.  But I certainly wouldn’t expect Fox or the AP to pick up the Chamber, anyway.  Chen the Salesman hasn’t gotten the attention of David the Campaign Strategist, I guess.

Hey, NO FAIR!!!

And with great hesitation to click “publish”, I dub this the one and only Official Chamber “Joe the Plumber” thread.

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Oh, What The Heck

I’ve been resisting the temptation to comment on this bizarre Ashley Todd mugging hoax fiasco, but I just can’t hold it in anymore.

Well, on second thought, I think instead I’ll comment on the stupidest of the stupid things I’ve seen said on the subject.  After visiting dozens of blogs and news sites, and watching the coverage on the cable news networks, I’m going to give the prize to none other than the VP of Fox News, John Moody, posting this (before the fact that the gal made it all up came out):

If Ms. Todd’s allegations are proven accurate, some voters may revisit their support for Senator  Obama, not because they are racists (with due respect to Rep. John Murtha), but because they suddenly feel they do not know enough about the Democratic nominee.

If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator McCain’s quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting.

So let me get this straight.  Mr. Moody was making the claim that the outcome of this 2-year long campaign could hinge on this singular, isolated incident?  Forget, for a moment, that the incident was later revealed to be a hoax, what the hell kind of ridiculous notion is that?  Because his network made a big deal out of it?

And why in the world would voters “revisit their support for Senator Obama” based on an ugly mugging?   I just don’t get it.  The only thing that makes sense to me is that this guy is really revealing his inner thoughts, and not offering some insight on what he feels “some voters” might think.  It looks like a strawman concocted by -as Andrew Sullivan put it- a racist of massive proportions (and my readers would know that I certainly don’t toss the “racist” label flippantly).  Or, put another way, Moody is attempting to convince his readers that Obama supporters like myself should revisit our support because of the alleged actions of one big crazy black man.  And not because we’re racist, of course, but because it seems logical?

The bottom line is this: Any objective observer can see that, real or staged, this incident has no bearing on the candidates, the campaigns, or the myriad of important issues of the day, regardless of what the Drudges or the Fox VP’s of the world want. 

 

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Does Al Qaeda Care About Our Elections? (Part III)

Interesting.  A month after I posed the question in Part II, I think I saw the answer pop up today.  Here’s the WaPo via memeorandum: On Al-Qaeda Web Sites, Joy Over U.S. Crisis, Support for McCain

Al-Qaeda is watching the U.S. stock market’s downward slide with something akin to jubilation, with its leaders hailing the financial crisis as a vindication of its strategy of crippling America’s economy through endless, costly foreign wars against Islamist insurgents.

And at least some of its supporters think Sen. John McCain is the presidential candidate best suited to continue that trend.

“Al-Qaeda will have to support McCain in the coming election,” said a commentary posted Monday on the extremist Web site al-Hesbah, which is closely linked to the terrorist group. It said the Arizona Republican would continue the “failing march of his predecessor,” President Bush.

The Web commentary was one of several posted by Taliban or al-Qaeda-allied groups in recent days that trumpeted the global financial crisis and predicted further decline for the United States and other Western powers. In language that was by turns mocking and ominous, the newest posting credited al-Qaeda with having lured Washington into a trap that had “exhausted its resources and bankrupted its economy.” It further suggested that a terrorist strike might swing the election to McCain and guarantee an expansion of U.S. military commitments in the Islamic world.

Whether the current financial situation we find ourselves in is due to the expensive “War on Terror” is surely to be disputed, of course, but it’d be pretty hard to argue that it’s helped the situation (unless one wants to make the claim that the Iraq intervention has somehow prohibited another financially ruinous attack, thereby being a net plus).  It’s been 4 years since Osama released his “bankrupt the U.S.” October surprise, and it has been argued that the tape put Bush in the White House (as designed), so one may naturally wonder if AQ has something up their sleeve this time around.  And like I posted in Part II, there apparently have been warnings of another attack.   So, What would they do?  An attack, or maybe drag Osama out of the cave to release another taunting video?

Actually, the better question would be:  Would the American people fall for it again, whatever they did?

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Update: No signs of Qaeda election threat – U.S.

Michelle Bachmann Said What? (Pt. II)

Knowing Bachmann, I might have to make this a recurring theme here in the Chamber.  My ears perk up every time I see her on the cable news networks or web headline, as she represents the Congressional district just to the North of me.  My fellow neighbors must be so proud to see this:

“I wish the American media would take a great look at the views of the people in Congress and find out, are they pro-America, or anti-America.  I think the American people would love to see an expose like that.”

I’m speechless.

Anyway, Bachmann was speaking to Matthews on the subject of McCain’s robo calls (incidentally, a tactic that, in his 2000 campaign, McCain had denounced).

Also see:  Bachmann: Alaska’s Caribou Will Love Oil Drilling ‘Because Of The Warmth Of The Pipeline’

And, of course, Part I

Update:  Colin Powell responds.

Update:  Bachmann’s opponent, Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg, has raised $640K since she made the comments.  Oops.

Poll Wars

I haven’t commented much on the polls here in the Chamber as we march toward election day, mostly because I’ve seen the practice of touting Obama’s lead as something I might regret.  In other words, whatever the polls might say, I still think that this election is going to be very close.

I only bring it up now because I’ve noticed a couple of things on the web that reminded me of an old debate on whether these presidential opinion polls are less an attempt to gauge public opinion, and more of an attempt to influence it.    One such sighting came the other day, when Tex brought to my attention an interesting yet poorly-sourced and flawed essay by the enigmatic Zombie, in which he/she accuses Obama supporters of “stuffing” the post-debate polls in an effort to make the idea that Obama won the debates an accepted “fact”.  Like I said, an interesting theory, but unfortunately Zombie didn’t provide much of anything to back up the assertion, so I let him/her know.  (I had always assumed that the reputable and referenced post-debate polls weren’t internet-based anyway, although I always wonder how they determine who the “undecided” voters are)

The other sighting happened when I visited Drudge Report, and I obviously couldn’t miss this:

Drudge is right about one thing, in that a dramatic swing like that certainly would be considered a shock.  So, I decided to investigate a little on my own, and turned to fivethirtyeight.com (since they watch this stuff daily), and I came across this analysis:

Let me be clear: I don’t blame Drudge for trying to drive the narrative. Unlike certain other folks, it’s not as though he’s made any claim to being objective. With real news — which polls aren’t — he generally has excellent and entertaining instincts.

I do, however, blame those of who allow yourselves to have your day ruined when Drudge moonlights as some kind of polling analyst.

A fairer way to analyze tracking polls, in any event, is something like this: McCain gained ground in three of the seven trackers today (Gallup, Rasmussen, Battleground). He lost ground in one (Zogby). Three others (Research 2000, Hotline, IBD/TIPP) were unchanged.

So, what is Drudge doing here?  Is he cherry-picking the most McCain-favorable poll he could find in an effort to influence opinion?  After all, much has been said about Drudge’s uncanny ability to drive the national conversation.  Is he trying to exploit a variation of the principle of social proof and frame the narrative that McCain is making some sort of spectacular comeback?

My guess would be, yes.  Especially since he went for it again today.  This one appeared to be picked up by Lou Dobbs, as he repeated the Drudge headline almost verbatim on his show this evening.  

Of course, the only poll that really matters is the one taken on November 4th, but I think that a debate on how much the polls taken leading up to the big day influence the outcome is worth having.  Do the candidates alter their tactics based on the polls?   You bet.  Do those tactics then play a role in winning and losing?  Of course they do.    If the shift of tactics is transparent, and the voter assumes that the change is based solely on the polls, does it (the tactic) lose some of its effectiveness (i.e. “McCain’s just going negative because he’s behind in the polls”)?  Sure.  In fact, it would be interesting to get an idea what the change in the electoral dynamic would be if the poll results were kept privately within the campaigns, or if they did away with polling altogether.   Of course that would never happen, but when you think about it that way, one revisits the reasons why they are everywhere. 

Wait a second.  Why are they everywhere, anyway?

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Watching The Train Wreck

I couldn’t help but notice that the number of conservative pundits coming out against -or otherwise expressing dissatisfaction with- the McCain campaign appears to be growing.  There’s frustration out there, that’s for sure, and its on full display and playing out all over the political web.  So, for the purposes of discussion and future reference, I decided to recap what we’ve seen in the last few days/weeks and post a little link depot (in no particular order, out of laziness):

David Brooks: Sarah Palin “Represents A Fatal Cancer To The Republican Party”

David Frum: Palin the irresponsible choice?

Kathleen Parker:  Palin Problem

Christopher Buckley:  Sorry, Dad, I’m Voting for Obama

Christopher Hitchens:  Vote for Obama McCain lacks the character and temperament to be president. And Palin is simply a disgrace. (ouch!)

Heather MacDonald: Gettin’ All Mavericky

Bill Kristol: Fire the Campaign (and later, the Campaign Fights Back!)

With regards to some of the other prominent pundits who refuse to accept all that, I’ve witnessed a few rather strange posts; a decent into the realm of rants and accusations that lie on the frayed ends of sanity.  Here’s one example:

Amdy McCarthy: Did Obama Write “Dreams from My Father” … Or Did Ayers? (a post that resulted in a WTH? exchange from one of his collegues at NRO)

And speaking of NRO and their unusual practice of conversing thru blog posts, there’s even more drama today, and Frum feels compelled to defend himself:

Do my correspondents (and now my Corner colleagues) truly believe that – but for my pitiful media and social ambitions – nobody in America would have noticeed that Sarah Palin cannot speak three coherent consecutive words about finance or economics? 

Double Ouch.

Now, having officially endorsed Obama for president here in the Chamber, one might assume that I’m watching all this with a certain amount of glee.  I’ll admit, there might be some of that, but mostly I feel a little vindicated for some of my recent threads.  After all, contrary to some of the charges made against me in the comments section that I’ve turned the Chamber into a medium of dishonest propaganda, here you have some evidence of similar criticism coming from those who are wearing partisan goggles of a different shade.

I hereby open up the thread, but I may add a few more derailment examples as I stumble upon them.

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Update: Well, that didn’t take long: Bush Strategist: McCain Knows He Put Country At Risk With Palin Pick

The other panelists were surprised, a bit, by Dowd’s bluntness. Not least because McCain’s well-known campaign motto is “country first.”

“No, I don’t agree,” said Mark McKinnon, a former McCain aide, after chiding Dowd for claiming particular insight into McCain’s soul.

“Well,” responded Dowd, “that’s even more disturbing than my thought” — the implication being that it would be truly frightening if McCain didn’t know how bad Palin truly was.

But maybe this one shouldn’t count (too RINOish).  I report, you decide, I guess.

Update:  Almost forgot about this one: Surprise: Peggy Noonan not sure who she’s voting for

Update: In Philly, Conservative Talk Radio Host Backs Obama

Will Palin Drop Out Of The Race In Light Of Troopergate Fallout?

Quick thread, since it just broke and I’m not sure if anyone else has posed the question yet…

Here’s the discussion on memeorandum.

Here’s the 263-page report (pdf).  In short, Branchflower concluded that Palin violated the ethics law by using (abusing) her authority to pressure Monegan to fire Wooten, and not in the act of firing Monegan.  It’s and important distinction that I don’t think alot of the netizens on the web are grasping at this point. 

So, the “what now?” question arises, and the pundits are all over the board on this one.  Impeachment?

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Sarah Palin & “Also”

I sat down for another wonderful night of watching TV before bed, and somewhere in between Anderson Cooper and the hockey game I had a revelation:  Sarah Palin says “also”, like…a lot. 

So, just to make sure I wasn’t crazy, I decided do a quick search to see if I was the only one who’d noticed this.  Well, sure enough, some ambitious netizen with a little too much time on his/her hands put together a little montage:

Ya know Sarah, it’s OK to insert a few “as well”‘s and “too”‘s in there every once and awhile.  Wow.   But, hey, this is just a edit hack-job, right?

Wrong.

Let’s take a look at the transcript from her debate with Biden.  Then, hit CTRL+F, and search for the word. 

{{{drumroll}}}

The “also” count:

Palin: 48

Biden: 3

In fact, it didn’t take long for Palin to kick it in:

PALIN: Thank you, Gwen. And I thank the commission, also. I appreciate this privilege of being able to be here and speak with Americans.

Now there’s your drinking game!  It would have been a veritable flurry of shots.  But on the other hand, everyone would have been passed out 10 min. into the debate…also.

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Obligatory (and official) Obama/McCain Debate II Thread

My take?  It was a bit of a snoozer, but I think Obama emerged victorious again.  Perhaps it was less of Obama winning, and more of McCain losing.  The Arizona senator sounded anxious and a bit desperate, and Obama more poised and presidential.  Overall, though, most of this stuff was covered in the last debate.

And now, a little round-up from around the internet:

• CBS and CNN call it for Obama.
• Malkin (right) and Beeton (left) agrees with me that it was a snoozer, and Justin at Donklephant agrees that McCain lost it.
• Over at the Corner, Andy McCarthy is irate that McCain didn’t turn it into a poo-flinging contest.
• Althouse earns the Mr. Conspiracy award (hilarious).
• The transcript.
• Drunkblogging?  (drink!)

Another wonderful night in American politics.

And I suppose I should note that, back in April, I predicted that these debates would cost McCain the election.   With only one debate remaining, I can’t honestly say that I was correct on this one (at least in the context of the argument I was making).  Obama will probably win the general, but there is no routs going on here.  On the other hand, I think its safe to say that these things aren’t exactly helping McCain’s situation.